Market Commentary for April 2025
President Trump hasn’t broken the Stockmarket...
By Alan Hull
But I think he has reset it. Since Trump won the election in early November, the U.S. Stockmarkets have formed a double top (reversal pattern) and then broken their medium to long term trends. The following charts of the NASDAQ 100 index demonstrate this, where the second chart is a magnification of the first chart. This is the end of the current medium to long term trend….and the start of the next one. So the Trump Administration’s disruption has reset the U.S. Stockmarkets.
And the principle disruption is the introduction of tariffs on foreign goods on April the 2nd. President Trump is calling this liberation day, when the rest of the world stops ripping off the United States on international trade. Now without drilling down into too much detail on this….tariffs are in fact a tax on U.S. importers of foreign goods and not a tax that foreign entities have to pay. But that said, a tariff war will slow down inter-national trade and this will have a negative impact on financial markets.
Although the impact on financial markets is largely being felt in the U.S. and not so much anywhere else. So I guess the majority of investors do realize that the forthcoming tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses. All this can be seen in my video review where I take a look at my personal index charts and the latest Blue Chip Report...